Today on the S&P 600 (IJR), the 20-day EMA nearly crossed above the 50-day EMA for a “Silver Cross” IT Trend Model BUY Signal. Price is really going nowhere. Bulls might look at it as a bull flag, but the ‘flag’ is horizontal, not trending lower. That setup doesn’t usually execute as you’d expect, with a breakout move that flag formations call for. The announcement of tariffs on Friday did set the market up for a strong downside reversal, and IJR was hit fairly hard.
This signal will definitely be late to the party should it trigger as we had expected it to today. The signal may not occur, as a drop beneath the 50-day EMA would likely negate a Silver Cross. The PMO is still rising and is above the zero line now, but price just doesn’t look healthy. Participation of stocks above their key moving averages is trending somewhat lower. They do read above our bullish 50% threshold, but not by much. This looks like an index that is weakening, not strengthening on a BUY Signal.
Conclusion: The index opened higher, but IJR struggled after the tariff announcement, more so than the SPY. It may be close to a Silver Cross BUY Signal, but it doesn’t look ready to breakout. Participation is slowly thinning. We would be careful with the market as a whole right now, but IJR looks especially weak.
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